Week 5 NFL betting trends to know - 7 minutes read


Betting on road teams in the NFL continues to be profitable. Including the Los Angeles Rams' narrow cover against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night, road teams are now 41-22-1 ATS this season.

Tom Brady makes history this week with his 63rd consecutive regular-season game as a favorite, breaking a tie with Steve Young for the longest streak in the Super Bowl era. He has gone 45-26-1 ATS during that stretch.

Here are some of the notable betting trends for Week 5.

All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.


Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 ET

• Baltimore has covered each of the past five meetings in Pittsburgh.

• Baltimore has not covered in three straight games since its 59-10 Week 1 win in Miami.

• Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in Lamar Jackson's five career road starts (1-0 ATS as a road favorite).

• Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has been a home underdog five times with quarterbacks other than Ben Roethlisberger. All five times, the game went under the total.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) vs Oakland Raiders, 1 ET (in London)

• In the past six London games, favorites are 5-1 ATS and five of the six games went under the total.

• Teams favored by four or more points are 7-3 ATS all-time in London games.

• Eight of the past nine Chicago games went under the total.

Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 ET

• Since the start of the 2016 season, Arizona is 3-13 ATS in 1:00 games.

• In the Super Bowl era, when two winless teams meet in Week 5 or later, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS.

• Andy Dalton has failed to cover in his past five home starts, including a 41-17 loss to San Francisco as a favorite in Week 1.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5), 1 ET

• Kyle Allen is 3-0 ATS in his career as a starter, winning all three games as an underdog. He joins Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era to win their first three career starts, all as an underdog. This is Allen's first game as a favorite.

• Jacksonville is 3-0 ATS in Gardner Minshew II starts.

• In the past five seasons, the only quarterbacks to start their careers 4-0 ATS are Mitchell Trubisky, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mahomes and Trevor Siemian.

• Carolina has lost five straight home games, including both this season (1-4 ATS, 0-2 this season).

Minnesota Vikings (-5) at New York Giants, 1 ET

• Minnesota's past five road games went under the total, and it is 1-5 ATS in its past six road games.

• Minnesota is 22-10-1 ATS after a loss under Mike Zimmer.

• Eight of the past 10 Minnesota games went under the total, including five of seven since Kevin Stefanski took over as offensive coordinator last season.

• The favorite has covered in all four Minnesota games this season and in 14 of Minnesota's past 15 games overall.

• New York is 1-6 ATS and SU as a home underdog under Pat Shurmur.

New England Patriots (-15.5) at Washington Redskins, 1 ET

• This is the 63rd straight regular-season game Tom Brady will be favored in, breaking a tie with Steve Young (1993-97) for the longest streak in the Super Bowl era.

• New England is the first team since the 1970 merger to be favored by at least 15 points in three of its first five games in a season. The last team to do it was Green Bay in 1967, Vince Lombardi's final season.

• This is the most points Washington has been a home underdog by in the Super Bowl era (previous high: 13.5).

• New England has won 18 straight games against quarterbacks in their first two seasons, the longest streak in NFL history according to the Elias Sports Bureau (10-8 ATS). This trend only applies if Dwayne Haskins starts.

New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-14), 1 ET

• Philadelphia is 10-0 all-time against New York (9-1 ATS). That's the most outright wins without a loss in any matchup in NFL history.

• New York is 2-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2015.

• New York has lost 12 of its past 13 games outright (3-9-1 ATS in span).

• Carson Wentz is 1-7 ATS in eight home starts over the past two seasons.

• The underdog is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright in Philadelphia games this season.

Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-4), 1 ET

• Atlanta has failed to cover 13 straight games against AFC opponents (1-12 outright), including losses to the Titans and Colts in the last two weeks.

• Atlanta is 3-9 ATS in its past 12 games.

• Houston's past six home games went under the total.

• The underdog has covered in all four Houston games this season.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-3), 1 ET

• All four Buffalo games have gone under the total this season. Buffalo is the only team to have every game either go over or under the total this season. Since the start of last season, 13 of its 20 games have gone under.

• Buffalo has covered five of its past six games dating back to last season.

• The underdog has won all four Tennessee games this season outright.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3), 1 ET

• Teddy Bridgewater is 25-7 ATS in his career as a starting quarterback, the best mark by any quarterback with at least 15 starts in the Super Bowl era. He's 2-0 ATS this season with two outright wins as an underdog.

• New Orleans has failed to cover each of the last five times it has been a home favorite, including the playoffs.

• Jameis Winston is 4-1-1 ATS on the road over the past two seasons. This year, Tampa Bay has been a 6.5-point underdog against Carolina and a 9.5-point underdog last week against the Rams and won both games outright.

• The underdog has won all four Tampa Bay games this season outright.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5), 4:05 ET

• Denver has lost eight straight games dating back to last season (1-7 ATS).

• Since the start of last season, the under is 6-0-1 in Broncos' divisional games (Broncos: 2-5 ATS).

• Since 2010, teams with 0-4 records (Denver) are 6-15 ATS against teams with a prior win that season.

• Since Los Angeles hired Anthony Lynn, the under is 9-3 in its divisional games.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5), 4:25 ET

• Both times Aaron Rodgers faced the Cowboys in Dallas, Green Bay won the game outright as an underdog (2016 Divisional Round, 2017 Week 5).

• Aaron Rodgers is 22-14-1 ATS in the regular season when his team has more rest than his opponent.

• Dallas has won seven straight home games, going 5-1-1 ATS in that span (2-0 this season).

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-11), 8:20 ET

• Since 2015, Kansas City is 3-11 ATS as a home favorite of at least 7 points (1-3 ATS with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback).

• This game has the highest total this season (currently 56). Since 2011, games with totals of 55 or higher are 33-22-1 to the over.

• Since 2012, teams that are road underdogs after losing to that team in the previous season's playoffs are 7-21 ATS (5-23 SU). Kansas City eliminated Indianapolis last season.

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-4), Monday, 8:15 ET (ESPN)

• San Francisco is 1-13-1 ATS and 6-9 outright in its past 15 games as a favorite (since Week 12 of 2014).

• San Francisco is 0-6-1 in its past seven games following its bye week (0-7 ATS).

• Baker Mayfield is 5-1 ATS on the road in his career.