Cricket is closing in on an Olympic return, some 128 years since its last appearance, amid growing confidence of its inclusion at the 2028 Games in Los Angeles and beyond.

Sources have told the Guardian the prospect is now “very likely” that men’s and women’s Twenty20 competitions – with gold medals at stake – will finally make the cut for Olympic inclusion, opening up a potentially lucrative commercial market in the Asian subcontinent.

The current proposal is for five teams in each competition, with qualification based on the International Cricket Council’s world rankings. It would be the first Olympic cricket witnessed since a one-off gold medal match in the 1900 Games in Paris.

It would also see the realisation of a long-term aim at the ICC, past indifference to the Olympics having been replaced by a desire to expand the sport globally in recent years and resulting in a women’s T20 tournament at the 2022 Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.

There is also a strong financial incentive for the International Olympic Committee, which made cricket one of nine shortlisted sports for LA 2028 along with baseball/softball, flag football, lacrosse, break dancing, karate, kickboxing, squash and motorsport.

The current Olympic broadcast rights in India are sold for individual Games and reported to be worth just £15.6m ($20m) for Paris 2024. But industry experts have told the Guardian that, depending on the format and the number of guaranteed matches for India, this figure could be worth up to £150m if cricket is included in LA 2028 and then Brisbane in 2032.

Commercial arrangements are viewed as the only realistic stumbling block. But it does mean staging the men’s T20 World Cup in West Indies and the USA next June is imperative, amid recent reports it could be moved to England due to concerns over infrastructure in the States; reports which continue to be played down by the ICC and the England and Wales Cricket Board.

Should cricket make the cut in LA – a decision on which is expected before the end of the year – England would compete as Team GB. For the Commonwealth Games in 2022, West Indies earned qualification through the rankings and were represented by Barbados following a regional qualifier.

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The sport would also continue its advance into the United States more broadly, with Major League Cricket – a franchise Twenty20 league featuring international players – about to complete its inaugural season.